Miami, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

406
FXUS62 KMFL 090549
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
149 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

A weak mid level disturbance currently over the Bahamas will slowly
try to slide southwestward under the mid level ridge that has been
in place over the Florida Peninsula during the past several days. At
the surface, high pressure centered in the Atlantic will extend
westward across the region and into the Gulf. With the surface ridge
axis remaining just to the north, a rather light synoptic easterly
wind flow will remain in place. With the mid level disturbance being
on the weaker side, it will not have too much of an affect on the
sensible weather pattern today across South Florida as the mid level
heights will not lower much and 500mb temperatures will not be
drastically cooler. The latest guidance shows 500mb temperatures
hovering between -7.5 to -8.5C throughout the day.

Moisture levels today look slightly higher when compared to the past
several days as PWAT values range between 1.7 to 1.9 inches to start
the day before gradually increasing especially over Southwest
Florida this afternoon to around 2 inches. This will all result in
convective development being triggered mainly by the sea breezes as
they develop and push inland. With the steering flow aloft becoming
a bit weaker today and moisture gradually increasing, the latest
CAMs are support of some isolated shower and storm activity
developing along the east coast this morning before gradually
shifting towards the interior and west as the afternoon progresses.
Storms that develop earlier in the afternoon may form closer to the
east coast metro areas due to the lighter steering flow in place.
With ample moisture in place this afternoon combined with
sufficient instability provided by diurnal heating (SB CAPE
values ranging between 2200-3000 J/kg and DCAPE values of 900-1100
J/kg), some of thunderstorms will have the possibility of
becoming strong again over the interior. These storms will form
where sea breeze boundaries and other mesoscale boundaries collide
and will have the potential to produce heavy downpours, small
hail and gusty winds.

Heading into Thursday, the main change in the weather pattern across
South Florida will be a moisture surge pushing in from the east
which will increase PWAT values area wide and the latest guidance
suite and forecast model soundings show values of 1.9 to 2.1
inches across most of the region during the afternoon and evening
hours. The mid level disturbance will start to curve northwestward
into the southeastern Gulf, however, due to the weakness of this
feature along with it trying to push further into the Gulf away
from the peninsula, it will not provide much of an extra source of
lift and convection will mainly once again be driven by the sea
breezes. With the added moisture coming in from the east, this may
help to enhance coverage of showers and storms as the day
progresses, however, convection should follow the typical diurnal
summertime pattern. Showers and storms will be possible in the
morning across the east coast before shifting towards the interior
and west in the afternoon and evening with southeasterly steering
flow in place. With 500mb temperatures remaining between -8 and
-9C, some strong thunderstorm development will be possible
especially over the interior and Southwest Florida in the
afternoon. The strongest storms will be capable of producing gusty
winds, small hail, and heavy downpours.

High temperatures today and Thursday will generally range from the
upper 80s along the immediate east coast to the lower 90s across
Southwest Florida. Heat index values will generally range between
100 and 105 across most areas each day, however, peak heat index
values of 105-108 cannot be entirely ruled out in the afternoon
across portions of Southwest Florida. The time spent at these values
will be rather short lived and should negate the need for heat
advisories during this time frame.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

For the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, the two main
features that will dominate the weather pattern across the region
will be a strengthening mid level ridge becoming centered over
the Florida Peninsula as well as a surface area of high pressure
in the Atlantic extending westward over the region as well. As the
surface high over the area strengthens a bit and the pressure
gradient tightens up, southeasterly winds may increase heading
into Thursday night and Friday before becoming rather light again
heading into the upcoming weekend. Ultimately, this will result in
a typical summertime pattern continuing across South Florida on
Friday and into the upcoming weekend with convection being mainly
driven by sea breeze development. The usual diurnal pattern of
convection for this time of year will remain in place as shower
and thunderstorm activity starts to develop over the local waters
and the east coast during the morning hours before shifting
towards the interior and Southwest Florida during the afternoon
and evening hours. Some storms could still become strong each
afternoon mainly over Southwest Florida where sea breeze and other
mesoscale boundaries collide and lift is maximized. The strongest
storms could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours. High
temperatures through the end of the week and into the upcoming
weekend will generally range from the upper 80s along the east
coast to the lower 90s across Southwest Florida.

Moving into the early portion of next week, the forecast starts to
become a little bit more uncertain as the mid level ridge pushes
northwestward into the Gulf and expands northward into the Midwest
as well as the Mississippi River Valley. At the same time, another
mid level disturbance to the east will begin to push towards the
Southeast coast during this time frame. While the general diurnal
pattern of convection will look to remain in place, with rather
light steering flow aloft combined with light winds trying to become
more southerly at the surface, this may help increase the chance of
showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. The exact details
still need to be ironed out and will depend heavily on the track and
evolution of this mid level disturbance as it pushes towards the
Southeast coast. For now, the latest forecast increases the chances
of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame, however, the
highest chances each afternoon are kept over the interior and
Southwest Florida. This will continue to be monitored as the week
progresses. High temperatures early next week will generally
range from the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight hours. Light
wind flow will increase out of the east to around 10 kts after
15z. Scattered showers and storms may develop over the east coast
terminals bringing periods of MVFR and IFR conditions during the
late morning and early afternoon hours before storms push towards
the interior and west. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the
WNW this afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Showers and
thunderstorms may also affect KAPF later this afternoon into this
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

A gentle east northeasterly wind flow will prevail across the
Atlantic waters today. These winds will then become moderate as they
shift towards the southeast for Thursday and Friday. A lighter and
more variable wind flow will take place across the Gulf waters
through the end of the week. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf
waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the end of
the week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be
possible across the local waters each day during this time frame.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

As southeasterly winds increase towards the end of the week, the
rip current risk may become elevated across the Atlantic Coast
beaches during this time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  79  90  80 /  40  20  50  30
West Kendall     90  76  91  77 /  40  20  50  30
Opa-Locka        92  79  92  80 /  40  20  50  30
Homestead        90  78  90  79 /  40  20  50  40
Fort Lauderdale  89  79  89  80 /  40  20  50  30
N Ft Lauderdale  90  79  90  80 /  40  20  50  30
Pembroke Pines   93  81  93  82 /  40  20  50  30
West Palm Beach  90  78  91  79 /  40  20  50  20
Boca Raton       91  78  92  79 /  40  20  50  30
Naples           93  77  91  77 /  60  40  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...CWC